Mark Thomas wrote:Steersman wrote:Mark Thomas wrote:Steersman wrote:
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Good points; quite agree.
Apropos of which is this bit from Shermer’s
The Believing Brain – highly recommended:
As we saw in the previous chapter, politics is filled with self-justifying rationalizations. Democrats see the world through liberal-tinted glasses, while Republicans filter it through conservative shaded glasses. When you listen to both “conservative talk radio†and “progressive talk radio†you will hear current events interpreted in ways that are 180 degrees out of phase. So incongruent are the interpretations of even the simplest goings-on in the daily news that you wonder if they can possibly be talking about the same event. Social psychologist Geoffrey Cohen quantified this effect in a study in which he discovered that Democrats are more accepting of a welfare program if they believe it was proposed by a fellow Democrat, even if the proposal came from a Republican and is quite restrictive. Predictably, Cohen found the same effect for Republicans who were far more likely to approve of a generous welfare program if they thought it was proposed by a fellow Republican. In other words, even when examining the exact same data people from both parties arrive at radically different conclusions. [pg #263] (my emphasis)
As you say, cognitive dissonance. And simple filtering through various lenses or coloured by various biases. Rather difficult to disentangle at times.
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I quite agree with Shermer. But his thoughts apply as equally to welch, remick, and wonderist.
Probably. To a greater or lesser extent depending on the topic under discussion. But that we all have biases isn’t sufficient to make the case that all arguments and biases are created equal or carry equal weight. Apropos of which, I think this quote of Carl Sagan addresses that point:
The well meaning contention that all ideas have equal merit seems to me to be little different from the disastrous contention that no ideas have any merit. (Broca’s Brain, pg xii)
Not at all easy to identify those biases but I think we’re obliged to make serious efforts to do so. And to make decisions based on that knowledge.
I also have a different opinion about who was poking holes in who's theories.
No doubt. But as we all have opinions the question is who has more facts to put on the table. And while I haven’t followed all of the convolutions of the argument that you and, in particular, welch have been having, it seems to me that welch’s observations about Groseclose’s ignorance about programming and its limitations weigh rather decisively against your position.
If Sagan was talking about scientific ideas - than I agree, I don't know the context of the quote. If he used it with respect to political ideas, then I vehemently disagree.
You're arguing that political positions - in general, we haven't defined any as of yet - are not created equal and one side is objectively more 'right'. That's nonsensical. Point me to the scientific study which validates that, to use one example, Citizen's United was wrongly decided and that anyone who supports the Supreme Court's decision is objectively wrong. You can't. The closest you would come would be the decision itself and the accompanying rebuttal.
well, first of all, you're acting like "objective" is some constant even in science. Guess what, it's not. As it turns out, even staying strictly within the sciences, there's a lot of interpretation going on. For example, *we all know* that a theory is...
a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world, based on a body of facts that have been repeatedly confirmed through observation and experiment.
Right? Well, as we see if you read
Earning a PhD by studying a theory that we know is wrong, that's not always the case:
In biology, a theory is indeed the confluence of multiple lines of real-world observations and evidence. That's precisely what scientists mean when they refer to evolution as a theory. And this is how it works in most other areas of science, from the germ theory of disease to the theory of plate tectonics to the big bang theory. But just because a term is used one way, that doesn't mean it isn't also frequently applied in another.
When something is called a theory, it is being compared to the other great theories of the past. In the case of something like the theory of evolution or the germ theory of disease, this comparison is saying that, like the theory of general relativity or evolution, a theory is so well-tested and so thoroughly incorporated into its field that it comes as close as science gets to final truth. Theoretical physics, on the other hand, often uses a different comparison; like general relativity, a theory in theoretical physics is a mathematical framework, a set of rules that describe the behavior of some system. Unlike general relativity, these systems don’t need to be grounded in experiment and they usually aren't even meant to describe the real world. N=4 super Yang-Mills isn't alone; check out Chern-Simons theory, Topological Quantum Field theories, or N=2 Superconformal Field theories.
What these theories do share is a certain level of rigor. Rather than being arbitrary, they involve precisely defined conditions that collectively give rise to interesting properties. While a theory in the theoretical physics sense isn't “true†in that it doesn’t describe the real world, it is “true†in that two researchers will agree on the theory’s properties. This allows interested parties to build off each other’s work.
While this sort of definition is perhaps most jarring in physics, other fields also define "theory" in a similar way. Essentially, every theory in mathematics is a theory in this sense (see Group theory and Category theory). The same is often true in closely related fields like computer science (Type theory, anyone?).
So we see that even something as (supposedly) "objective" as What A Theory Is, turns out to be rather, well, subjective. Funny, isn't it.
Mark Thomas wrote:Here's another example - Obamacare. Show me the study which proves that was the objectively right thing to do. You can't.
That's a nice try, but without defining terms, population, etc., you can't even define what "right" is. If we don't know what you mean by "right" in the non-directional sense, then we can't even BEGIN to hash that out. It's one reason why everyone in politics thinks they're correct: if you never define your terms, how can you possibly be incorrect?
Mark Thomas wrote:You can make political arguments for both - and please don't, it's not the point I'm trying to make - and those political arguments boil down to value judgements. Some people value free speech more than they value controlling political campaign contributions. And some people value government control of health care and others value free market alternatives. And there are varying shades of grey in all of these arguments - including the argument that the government doesn't have any business dealing with either of these two issues.
However, none of that precludes looking at someone's analysis and presentation of that analysis, and criticizing those. You're trying very hard to waffle all over the place so that no one can ever say anything is correct or incorrect, because there's just no right answer, and then using that to mean you can't even begin to criticise how someone goes about making their point. That's silly. I can, as other people have, point out real flaws I see in how he's going about things. You are free to dismiss every single criticism presented, which you have, and the speed of that makes me wonder why you even bother engaging, but that doesn't mean "oh, it's all subjective anyway, you can't say anyone's right or wrong."
Mark Thomas wrote:So while facts are an important component to political arguments, goals, methods, legality, among other things, are just as important.
No, actually, facts are far more important. If you don't have the facts correct, you can't decide legality. Legality kind of requires facts. If your methods ignore pertinent facts, then they're flawed, and any of the goals resulting from those methods is equally flawed. A great example is where Groseclose manages to make the *ACLU* and the *NRA* almost the same in terms of conservative outlook. That is, on any sane level, especially one that actually uses historical data, stupid, especially in the relatively small timeslice Groseclose uses. (The NRA was, many decades ago, not as shitpot nuts as they are now.) The RAND Group is more liberal than the ACLU? That only makes sense if you know nothing about either. But, that's the flaw when you use an overly simplistic metric, as Groseclose did, to base your analysis on. If your results are that out of whack with reality, that's a sign you should re-evaluate what you're doing.
Mark Thomas wrote:Finally - Groseclose's one sentence about programming is not relevant to his argument, which is detailed at length in his various papers and book. You can disagree with his argument - the Amazon reviewer clearly does. But in my opinion if you disagree with his argument without giving it a fair hearing (having read at least his paper) you're doing so out of bias. I don't agree with creationists but I know and fully understand their arguments. Same with anti-vaxxers.
It is absolutely relevant to his argument, given that he literally uses it to show that there's no way his book can be biased. He used a computer. That's not exaggeration, that's his actual point there. It is, on every level, so incorrect that I cannot believe it was made innocently. There's no way you can have enough CompSCI chops to write your own Stat code, and somehow really believe that a computer has some fucking "remove bias" function. That doesn't even make sense. Computers and software create biased output all the time, including the recent Excel-based one. ESPECIALLY when the results play into your confirmation bias. "Wow, that agrees with what we thought! WE'RE RIGHT".
There's also his rather pathetic appeals to authority. Dick Cheney must be smart. He worked with a guy who worked with a guy who worked with a guy blah, blah, who worked with Paul Erdos.
If that makes Dick Cheney smart, I'm a fucking movie star, because I have FAR less separation from Kevin Bacon than he does from Paul Erdos. Wait, I'm also a rock star, because I've tooled on a guitar with Frank Casanova (former QuickTime Guy for Apple) who played with Ace Frehley once.
Then there's the entire "i disclose my bias, WINNING" shit. What he, and you, are trying to push is that because he is so very aware of his biases,
obviously he's able to keep them out of his work. What a pack of shit. What it also means is "I'm disclosing this because I have no intention of doing anything but "proving" what my biases tell me is true, and I'll use pretty much any trick in the book, from appeals to authority to bullshitting you about how computers work to make you think I'm some font of objectivity."
Telling me you're biased has exactly zero value in terms of objectivity. Knowing, or not knowing your bias means shit. For example, I have *no* idea of the political leanings of the snopes.com crew. None. What I do know, is that every time I double-check them, they have their facts straight. They could be eating baby-kabobs dipped in panda scrotum sauce with a blue whale pancreas glaze for all I know. What matters is their output is solid. What I see from Groseclose is one of the most blatant manipulation attempts ever, and that, along with the analysis of his actual methodology, tells me he's naught but yet another bullshit artist.